Real Estate 2010
Christi Rainey with Westcoe Realtors, Riverside California…This is the time of year when most real estate companies try to out-do themselves with predictions about what will happen in the coming year…but the heck with that. They are just opinions, and no one really pays much attention anyway.
So instead, we thought it might be more useful to simply state a few facts about our local, Inland Empire real estate market as it stands today…or to quote Jack Friday from the old Dragnet series (yes, I am dating myself…you younger types can Google it)…”Just the Facts Ma’am.”
Fact #1…We are still an area dominated by two distinct real estate markets, separated by price. In arbitrarily picking a line at the $350,000 price range, in 2009 there were 4,746 closings in Riverside below this price, and only 521 above this price. This means that roughly 90% of all sales occurred at the “affordable” range, and only 10% above it…and in order for the higher price range to begin to see any significant action, there needs to be more sellers at the low prices using their equity to move up into the higher prices. Unfortunately, most of the “affordable” range sellers are banks or distressed sellers, neither of whom are looking to buy a more expensive home.
Fact #2…Available housing inventory is way down. Homes for sale in Riverside dropped over 55% from January 2009 to January 2010…from 2,385 to 1,034. This reduction is available inventory is really playing havoc with our markets, for reasons we will outline below after we lay out a few more facts.
Fact #3…Major banks are hoarding their repossessions, keeping them off the market. Why? The optimistic amongst us think that the banks are concerned about the possible negative effect of dumping their repos on the market…but when was the last time you saw a major bank care about the general public? The more cynical of us feel that the banks are actually “hiding” all their repos (and yes, reporting laws have changed and banks can indeed hide their repos) to make their books look good for Wall Street. Either way, the result is the same…and there are estimates of thousands of foreclosures in the Inland Empire that are unavailable and unaccounted for at this moment.
Fact #4…Buyer demand for “affordable” housing is higher than ever. We cannot speak about other parts of the country (or even California for that matter), but here in the Riverside area, we could easily sell every bit of the bank foreclosure inventory thrown our way. We consistently have 5-15 offers on any reasonable, “affordably’ priced home for sale, and the limited supply coupled with almost unlimited demand creates a very frenzied marketplace. Jobs and the economy aside, prices have fallen so much since 2007 that more and more people who were priced out of the buying equation can now afford to purchase a home.
Fact #5…Since the real estate meltdown of 2007, the new regulations imposed upon the appraisal industry have everyone running scared…and as a result, in our opinion, housing values are being kept artificially low by nervous appraisers who find it almost impossible to let market prices rise. Simple economics dictates that limited supply coupled with massive demand should lead to rising prices unless some outside force is acting upon the market…and in this case, that outside force is the constraints and new regulations placed upon the appraisal industry that keep prices from rising.
Fact #6…Interest rates for new hosing loans are extremely low…for now. There is a lot of pressure on the Fed to raise rates as soon as the economy shoes any consistent signs of life, so if you want today’s absolutely awesome 30 year fixed interest rates, you need to get on board that bus now…for the powers-that-be want the bus to leave the interest rate station as soon as possible in 2010.
In conclusion…Our market will weather this storm as it has all others, and the real estate sun will shine again…but when? If the banks would just let us sell what they have, then we could see our market turn around almost as quickly as ti tanked. If not, then this dual market of “affordable” price vs. “higher end” price will continue far longer than it should. That makes for a lot of very frustrated real estate professionals, buyers and home owners who are left to wade through a market that should not have to exist. However, we are stuck with what we have…for the one prediction we can make is that until banks get out of the home ownership business, we cannot have a sustained, reasonable real estate market. It’s that simple…and let’s all hope that happens in 2010.
Posted at 03:45PM Jan 29, 2010 by Christi Rainey in General | Comments[0]
